Saturday, August 11, 2018

A Comment On The 2018 Orioles

Last night the Orioles lost to the Red Sox and were mathematically eliminated from winning the AL East.  Being eliminated on August 10th ties them for the earliest elimination date ever with the 1962 Mets and the 1932 Red Sox.   They had 46 games remaining after last night - that's the most games left by an eliminated team in the divisional play era in MLB history (since 1969).

In contrast the 1988 Orioles weren't eliminated until Labor Day, September 5th (and also at the hands of the Red Sox).  This year's Orioles were 35-81 when eliminated - the 1988 team was only four games better (39-77) after 116 games.  The difference is that the first place team this year (the Red Sox) are playing at a historically high level - they were 82-35 after last night's game, a .701 winning percentage.  The AL East champions in 1988 (also the Red Sox) had a much lower winning percentage of .549. 

So it's not just that the Orioles are historically bad this year - they have the misfortune of playing in a division with a team that's historically good.

I do need to point out that they have not been eliminated from the Wild Card yet.  They are currently 27 1/2 games behind Oakland for the second Wild Card spot.  Their "wild card elimination number" is 13.  I don't know the earliest date that a team has been eliminated from the Wild Card but I suspect we will find out in another 10 days or so.

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